Thursday 26 April 2012

Nadal/Djokovic- Just a blip or has order been restored?

Depending on how you look at it, last weeks Masters final in Monte Carlo delivered the most predictable result of the season, or one of the first big shock moments in 2012.
Rsz_nadalGoing into the first clay court masters, Rafael Nadal could be comfortable with the fact that in each of his last 7 attempts to win the tournament nobody had been able to stop him, a run which included tournament victories over Roger Federer (3 times), Djokovic, Verdasco, Ferrer, and Guilermo Coria all the way back in 2005 when Rafa was in his teens. On the other hand, his opponent in the final Novak Djokovic had won the last 7 finals between the two including three slam finals, and perhaps most importantly 2 on Rafa's beloved clay in Europe this time last year.


The recent tale of the tape between the world's current top two players has been one dominated by Djokovic's two hander pounding through Rafa's defenses, but this was Monte Carlo, one place Rafa hadn't yet given up to Novak, and held extra special value considering the consecutive run of victories at the venue which really started Rafa's rise to the top echelons of the sport.


Unfortunately, the 6-3,6-1 scoreline in favour of Nadal casts the match as a bit of a damp squid considering the expectations both mean faced, and given the quality of their previous finals, not least in Melbourne last January.
Credit must go to Nadal, who despite reportedly suffering from knee tendinitis recently, really managed to move the Serb around, and use his natural proficiency for the clay surface to his advantage, and out manoevre Djokovic in pretty much every aspect of the game.
Of course, without wanting to demean the performance of Nadal, the loss of his Grandfather a couple of days previous to the final can't have helped the cause of the world no.1, who afterwards claimed to have been mentally shattered in the recent days since hearing about his family tragedy. Since the weekend, Djokovic has withdrawn from his hometown tournament the Serbian Open citing much needed time to grieve and mentally recover as reasons for his absence.


Despite the questionable circumstances around Djokovic's first loss to Nadal since the 02 in London back in 2010, it is now a different tennis environment that we looks out upon as we head towards the years second major. Unlike this time last year , Djokovic is looking vulnerable. All 3 of Murray, Isner and now Nadal have managed to do what nobody had done by this stage last year and beat the Serbian. Whilst for me he still goes in to the next few tournaments as it's clear favourite, the aura of invincibility that he like Federer and Nadal before him had worked so hard to build up is showing signs of fading, and the top 10 at least will go in to their matches thinking they have a realistic shot at springing the upset.


Lastly though, how has this weekends results impacted on the two players involved do we think?


I would wager that the loss is a lot less significant for Djokovic than Nadal. For sure Novak knows the he wasn't himself on Sunday for reasons most out of his control, he won't think that Rafa has beaten him at this best, and the last 7 wins will still count for a lot more than this one.
For Nadal however, this win may just be the catapult he needs to gain more confidence for what will be certainly be future encounters between the two. Monte Carlo might not have been Paris, and Djokovic might have been distracted, but any win against the no.1, a win that breaks a run of consecutive losses can only help Rafa rebuild in terms of his game and mindset when he faces Djokovic.


This week see's Rafa continue in Barcelona, whilst the next couple of weeks see's the rest of the tour join in as the circuit hits the masters 1000 in Madrid and then Rome. We can consider how Federer (absent since Miami) fits in to the clay scenario after a great run last year, and some early season form.


Rafa's win might not be the biggest of his career, but it definately provides that hint of doubt and excitement that could help make the clay season one to remember!







DJT