Sunday 24 June 2012

Wimbledon Men's Preview 2012

In my Women's prediction thread, i noted how the WTA had finally refound a degree of consistency and stability at the top of the game, yet my predictions for the men's draw will buck those same trends which have been a feature of the ATP since the rise of Fedal and then the emergence of Djokovic, by making what some might call "crazy" decisions.


Irrelevant of the draw, the history books beckon of any of the top 3 manage to win the Wimbledon title. Djokovic enters Federer like dominace at the fast majors with a win here, whilst the Spaniard Nadal does the RG/Wimbledon double thrice, not bad for a "clay courter". The real history though lies with Federer ( nearly every win see's him breaking some sort of record) should he win, the number one ranking is his again tieing Sampras for most weeks, another major lengthens his lead to 17, six over Nadal at 11, and strengthens his argument for GOAT and another year end no.1 finish.


To see any hope for players outside of the top 3 HAS to be dependant on the draw, so lets take a look and see what upsets we might see over the next 2 weeks at SW19:

Top Half


First Quarter- Djokovic is on a 9 consecutive SF streak, and bar big hitting Tomas Berdych in the quaterfinal, his road to the semi's is relatively block free. Former no.1 Ferrero is a tough opening match, but Novak will have too much in the tank over five sets for the 32 year old Spaniard. Towards the Czech's end, Gasquet looms as a possible candidate to spring an upset and make the Djokovic QF, but the safe money is on Berdych who often saves his best tennis for the quicker lawns of the All England Club. Pick of the first rounds are the top seeds matches. Djoko/Ferrero and the battle of the ball bashers Gulbis/Berdych.

Winner - Novak Djokovic


Second Quarter-  6 time champion Roger Federer has the easiest opening round on paper against clay favoring Spaniard Ramos, Llodra is too old to challange RF in round 2, so Muller could be his shock in the third. Simon on grass is a nice fourth round, opening up a potential QF with Tipsarevic. The 2 ranked Serb will have to make it through Nalbandian in his opening match, and potentially Isner in the round of 16 to get there, and nothing tells me he should be banked on to get through those tough ties. Isner/Mahut do battle again in the second round, and lets hope they finish more in the vein of last year rather than the 2010 marathon.

Winner - Federer ( over Nalbandian in a turn back the clocks moment)


Bottom Half


Third Quarter- British hopeful Murray leads the 3rd Quarter, looking to make it one better than his last 3 efforts and make his first SW19 final. Unfortunately for him, getting there will be a nightmare. Davydenko in the first will be easier than most expect but 3 consecutive big servers in Karlovic, Anderson and Raonic is too much of a shootfest for fans to be confident. Raonic will be that guy. On the other side of the quarter, Del Potro and Ferrer are the highest seeds, but unsuited to the grass. Roddick could swoop in for the dream run to the semi's where it's anyones ball game.

Winner- Andy Roddick


Fourth Quarter- Nadal once again takes the uncomfortable position at the bottom of the draw, and would have much preferred Djokovic's route to the final. He faces an awkward looking third round with Haas or Kolschreiber both of whom performed strongly in Halle last week. Things start looking better after that, but Lopez serving well on grass isn't a formality either. A Tsonga/Hewitt opening round will test the charismatic frenchmans injured thumb, whilst Melzer and Wawrinka are other tricky customers in his section. Tsonga's efforts last year in making the semi's make him my favourite for this section of the draw (fitness dependant), with Nadal suffering a rare first week loss to Haas or Kolschreiber in R3.

Winner- Jo Wilfried Tsonga


Semi Finals


Federer bts Djokovic in a high quality four set match reminiscent of their RG encounter in 2011
Tsonga bts Roddick in a five set serve fest, heartbreak for A-Rod who blows his last shot at a Wimbledon title.


Final


Federer avenges his loss to Tsonga by winning a four set tussle in the final, and recapturing the no.1 ranking once again. A familiar sight?










DJT

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